Memory shortage could cause the biggest smartphone shipments dip in over a decade

A emergence successful the request for computers and information centers for AI is causing a monolithic shortage of RAM, resulting successful prices of representation shooting up successful multiples. Now, expert steadfast IDC predicts that this volition origin smartphone shipments to plummet by 12.9% this year, making it the biggest dip successful much than a decade.

Earlier this year, IDC said that manufacturers shipped 1.26 cardinal devices successful 2025. The steadfast predicts that the measurement volition dip to lone 1.12 cardinal this year.

The representation situation volition origin much than a impermanent decline; it marks a structural reset of the full market, fundamentally reshaping long‑term TAM (Total Addressable Market), the vendor landscape, and the merchandise mix,” Nabila Popal, elder probe manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said successful a statement.

Image Credits: IDC

Popal said that due to the fact that of representation shortage, the mean selling terms of a smartphone is expected to emergence by 14%.

“We expect consolidation arsenic smaller players exit, and low-end vendors look crisp shipment declines amid proviso constraints and little request astatine higher terms points. Although shipments volition witnesser a grounds drop, Smartphone ASP is projected to emergence 14% to a grounds $523 this year,” she mentioned.

The steadfast said that, due to the fact that of this trend, the Middle East and Africa volition look shipments dropping implicit 20% year-over-year. Other markets similar China and Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China) volition besides diminution by 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.

It noted that it expects RAM prices to stabilize by mid-2027.

Last year, different expert firm, Counterpoint, besides noted that smartphone shipments would spell down, but its predicted dip was lone 2.6%.

Earlier this year, co-founder and CEO of Nothing, Carl Pei, besides said that smartphones volition outgo much successful 2026 arsenic representation modules for smartphones person started costing much for manufacturers. “Brands present look a elemental choice: rise prices by 30% oregon much successful immoderate cases, oregon downgrade specs. The “more specs for little money” exemplary that galore worth brands were built connected is nary longer sustainable successful 2026,” helium said.

“As a result, immoderate markets, peculiarly introduction and mid-tier segments, are apt to shrink by 20% oregon more, and brands that person historically dominated these segments volition struggle,” Pei noted.