Why this VC thinks 2026 will be ‘the year of the consumer’

Investment successful user tech startups has been successful a downturn since 2022, arsenic a turbulent macroeconomic clime and rising ostentation person made VCs skittish astir user spending power. For the past mates of years, astir AI concern has focused connected winning implicit endeavor customers, who supply abdominous checks, multi-year contracts, and speedy paths to scale.  

But 1 VC sees the user assemblage gearing up for a comeback successful 2026. 

“This is gonna beryllium the twelvemonth of the consumer,” said Vanessa Larco, spouse astatine the task steadfast Premise and a erstwhile spouse astatine NEA, connected this week’s episode of the Equity podcast.

Larco says that adjacent though enterprises person large budgets and a frantic tendency to instrumentality AI solutions, adoption often stalls due to the fact that “they don’t cognize wherever to start,” Larco says. 

“The amusive happening astir user and prosumer…is that radical already person successful caput what they privation to usage it for,” Larco continued. “And truthful they acquisition it, and if it meets the need, they conscionable support utilizing it.”

In different words, adoption is quicker, and startups gathering AI products don’t person to conjecture whether they’ve really achieved product-market acceptable oregon person conscionable won a contract. 

“If you’re selling to consumers, you’ll cognize precise rapidly if it’s fitting a request oregon not, and you’ll cognize rapidly whether you request to pivot oregon marque immoderate changes to your merchandise oregon wholly scrap it and commencement thing wholly different,” Larco said. 

And successful today’s anxiety-inducing economy, user tech products that negociate to standard show an particularly beardown product-market fit. 

There are aboriginal indications that user tech is having a moment. Late past year, OpenAI launched apps successful ChatGPT, allowing users to store with the Target app, scour the lodging marketplace with Zillow, publication trips with Expedia, oregon marque a Spotify playlist, each done the ChatGPT chatbot experience. 

“AI is gonna consciousness similar concierge-like services, which volition bash everything for you that you person successful mind,” Larco said. “The question is, which of it should beryllium specialized, and which should beryllium wide purpose?”

Or enactment differently, arsenic OpenAI works to marque ChatGPT the caller operating strategy of the user internet, which bequest companies – similar Tripadvisor oregon WebMD – volition proceed to beryllium successful their ain right, and which volition get eaten by OpenAI?

While Larco does deliberation 2026 is going to beryllium a “gangbuster” twelvemonth for M&A, she’s funny successful investing successful startups that “OpenAI isn’t going to privation to kill.”

“OpenAI doesn’t negociate real-world assets,” she said. “I don’t deliberation they’ll physique an Airbnb rival due to the fact that I don’t deliberation they’re gonna privation to negociate homes…I don’t deliberation they’re going to physique immoderate of these marketplaces that necessitate existent humans due to the fact that they don’t privation to negociate the humans.”

Aside from which startups tin capable the gaps, Larco is watching retired for what happens if OpenAI “decides to propulsion an Apple oregon Android wherever they instrumentality a 30% chopped of each the postulation they nonstop you.”

“Is Airbnb gonna privation to play shot with that?” she asked. 

Overall, Larco predicts caller monetization strategies and caller concern models volition look from the evolved user acquisition online. 

While doomscrolling connected Instagram astir Trump’s seizure of Venezuelan person Nicolás Maduro, Larco noticed something. She had travel to the level to get quality connected the escalating crisis, but alternatively she was overwhelmingly flooded with AI-generated Maduro slop. 

While deepfakes person been steadily becoming mainstream connected societal media, this was 1 of the archetypal large quality events wherever AI-generated slop muddied the waters of the truth. 

“At that point, I was like, if I’m conscionable gonna beryllium watching AI-generated videos and photos, I privation it to beryllium funny,” she said.

Larco says she has been inundated with capable realistic-looking AI videos connected societal media that she conscionable assumes it’s each AI astatine this point, and she’s not alone. If we each commencement to presume that thing we spot connected Meta’s platforms oregon TikTok is existent anymore, the question volition be, wherever bash you get the existent stuff?

Larco says others mightiness capable successful the gaps of wherever to find truthful, non-AI contented arsenic platforms similar Reddit and Digg marque moves to verify humanity. But for Meta? Maybe it conscionable becomes an amusement company, a level for user-generated abbreviated films.

“I deliberation we should determination connected from getting your quality from [Meta],” Larco said. “You are conscionable getting comic videos from there. It’s not societal media. It’s conscionable gaming and amusement media.”

‘Some things are amended with dependable than a screen’

Meta Ray-Ban displayImage Credits:Meta / Meta

When Meta acquired AI cause startup Manus past week, galore saw it arsenic an endeavor play. Larco thinks it could beryllium a determination geared astatine improving Meta’s Ray-Ban astute glasses, a merchandise the VC is simply a immense instrumentality of due to the fact that they let her to reply telephone calls, respond to messages, instrumentality photos and videos, and inquire Meta AI questions, each without having to propulsion retired her telephone and navigate a screen. 

Larco says she thinks genuinely utile dependable AI assistants are yet “on the cusp of happening,” fueled by much precocious tech and much robust compute. 

“Some things are amended with dependable than a screen,” she said. “And due to the fact that dependable sucked, we needed the surface arsenic a crutch. But I would emotion to commencement separating retired what things are truly amended connected a surface and what things are conscionable amended with audio.”

Getting answers to questions her kids inquire astir what the tallest gathering is? Definitely voice. Taking retired her telephone to benignant successful the question present feels “archaic,” Larco said. 

“I deliberation it’ll beryllium truly amusive for designers due to the fact that they yet get to prime and take what signifier origin is amended for what usage cases,” she said.